There is No Such Thing as "Impossible" In Sports

It was February 4th, 2018 and I was so excited to experience my first Superbowl while at college. Lots of fun parties and drinking, right? 

Well as a lifelong Jets fan, there’s nothing more crushing than watching the Patriots win the Superbowl seemingly every year. And this time against the Eagles with a backup QB? I knew it was too easy for the Patriots. TOO easy. I’d seen this year in and year out. 

Freshman year also happened to be when I first got into sports gambling. I figured I knew so much about sports, I would make bank off sports betting! (Didn’t we all?) I had been successful in managing my laughable $10 bet college student bankroll, but I figured the super bowl was the time to make the big play. At least now when the Patriots win, I can cash out and have some joy in my archrival’s success. I looked at the spread of 5.5 and thought that seemed a little fishy. Bill Belichick coaching against a backup QB in a Superbowl? Patriots should blow them out…why isn’t the line higher? I was aware of trap lines/sharp plays and figured maybe this game would be close. But of course, I threw $50 on Patriots -5.5. That wasn’t all though. I knew I would be even more pissed if the Patriots won but didn’t cover, but no chance they lose. So, there I went again, $150 on Patriots ML. Before the game even started, I had $200 on my least favorite team to win the Superbowl…...and I felt great. 

I was watching the game was some New England friends, drinking beer, eating, the usual Superbowl festivities. Before I knew it, the Patriots fans started to panic. I remember laughing at them. Seeing the Patriots come from behind to somehow win crazy games was almost custom at this point. Especially from a rival and not a fan, I was not concerned in the slightest. Brady’s done this so many times. Patriots fans like to get nervous to add to the anticipation, but we all know what’s coming. A few drinks later, we’re in the 4th quarter. Patriots down 8 with a minute left. Patriots fans are freaking out. This is perfect, I thought to myself. Brady cements his legacy by driving down the field in a minute and getting the 2-point conversion to send to OT. And then…

Reality hits.

The Patriots just lost the Superbowl to a backup QB, and I can’t even be excited because I lost $200 (probably 50%+ of my bankroll at that time).

Ever since then, I never use the “impossible” card in sports. These games are not rigged. Anything can happen. Never bet with the intention of “there’s no way this can happen”, there is always a way. It was also at this time I learned the ways of rational unit sizing, reading lines, and smart betting. Since that Superbowl, there has only been one game where I made a similar “no way this can happen” mistake. And it came this past week.

I am writing this because I reminded myself of the Superbowl mistake this past week, in the dumbest way possible. Early Monday, I see my book has Jets -5 @ Dolphins up. I’m a Jets fan, and that line is just disrespectful to me. “No WAY we lose to Miami!!”, I said to myself, “Show some respect to the Jets!!” I thought this was a faulty line and would move up to 6 or 6.5, so I threw $55 on Jets -5 immediately. Wednesday comes around. Jets are now -3 or -3.5 on all books. “We’re really about to lose in Miami, aren’t we?” I said to my roommate who’s also a Jets fan. “Yeah, I’m not touching that line”. At this point, I can’t hedge out my Jets -5 with Dolphins +3, just doesn’t make since. Plus, I still believe Jets can win by 7. The Dolphins suck! 

Sunday comes. Jets lose. I lose $55, not an issue now as it was back a couple years ago, I don’t care about the money. I care about the stupid betting practices. I had learned my lesson years ago and somehow let it happen again with the Jets. There’s no such thing as a sure bet. Don’t jump on a line simply because it seems too good to be true. Vegas feeds on bettors like this. Do your research and make smart plays. Learn from my mistakes. 

I hate the Jets. I hate you Adam Gase. You’re a fraud. 

Written by: Blake Deresienski

November 5th, 2019