NETS @ NUGGETS ANALYSIS & PICK

-Jake Wolf (Wolf's Wagers) 

11/14/19

Thursday’s NBA slate will end with a 10:30 matchup between the Brooklyn Nets and Denver Nuggets. The 7-3 Nuggets are favored by 8.5 points at home over the 4-6 Nets, and the total is set at 222. There are opportunities for bettors on props and spread bets, but plenty of value lies in the total. 

Brooklyn’s star point guard Kyrie Irving is expected to play tonight despite a shoulder injury that originally had him questionable for the game. Irving is averaging 29.7 points, 7 assists, and 5.3 rebounds per game in his first season with the Nets. Despite his status as one of the most explosive offensive players in the NBA, Irving often struggles to contain opposing guards on defense. Denver point guard Jamal Murray leads the team in scoring with 18.7 points per game in 2019, and put up 48 points against Irving’s Celtics last year.

Murray and the Nuggets will look to score early and often against a 27th ranked Nets defense that is missing one of its best defenders after Caris LeVert’s thumb injury. Brooklyn’s offense is ranked fourth in the league, averaging over 20 free throws per game. The Nets are 5th in the league in pace and three-point percentage, and average 36 three-point attempts per game. 

While Irving is Brooklyn’s offensive leader, Spencer Dinwiddie has played a key role for the Nets, averaging 24.3 points per game on 48% shooting during their current road trip. Second-year shooter Daznan Musa has also stepped up this week, with 21 points in his last 2 games combined after playing only 6 total minutes in the team’s first seven games. The Nets take shots near the rim at the second highest rate in the NBA, and will attack the Nuggets in the paint. 

Nets centers Jarrett Allen and DeAndre Jordan are both excellent rebounders who will be able to dominate the offensive glass against Denver. Allen is averaging 8.6 rebounds per game, while Jordan ranks 12th in the NBA with 10.4 rebounds per game. While Jordan is only averaging 8.2 points per game this season, he has been a force on the boards and reached a double-double in each of his last two games. Jordan also ranks second in the NBA for rebounding percentage and rebounds per 36 minutes, behind only Andre Drummond. Brooklyn will have an opportunity for plenty of second-chance points against a Denver team that ranks 20th in the NBA in defensive rebound percentage. 

While Denver lacks Brooklyn’s explosiveness, they make up for it with steady offensive play, led by center Nikola Jokic. Jokic averages 17 points, 9 rebounds, and 6.1 assists and is the orchestrator of a Denver offense that puts up 24.7 assists per game, good for 10th in the NBA. The Nuggets are great at limiting turnovers and only give up the ball 13.9 times per game, ranking 4th in the league. This balanced offensive attack allowed seven Nuggets to score in double digits during Tuesday’s loss to the Hawks, led by Will Barton. 

Barton put up 21 points and shot 4-7 from deep, continuing his impressive start to 2019. Barton has been vital to Denver’s early season success, shooting 53.1% from deep on 4 attempts per game. After spending most of 2018 as a reserve, Barton’s hot streak has earned him a place in the starting rotation this year. Barton has grabbed at least seven boards in each of his last six games, and his shooting and rebounding ability gives a big boost to Denver’s offense.

Brooklyn will be able to push the pace against Denver and rack up second-chance points to keep the game close. The point guard matchup will produce an explosive offensive output, and both teams will shoot well enough to ensure a high-scoring game. I’m backing the OVER 222 for tonight’s Nets vs. Nuggets game, and expect the Nuggets to win in a close battle.