AFC WEEK 17/PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

-BLAKE DERESIENSKI

The final week of the NFL regular season is among us. 

Week 17 is a perfect time to analyze how successful your team has been this year, and what improvements to make for next season. 

The majority of teams already have their playoff fate decided, but there are still multiple games this week that will decide who’s playing in January. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers surprisingly seemed to be a lock for the playoffs 2 weeks ago sitting at 8-5. Since then they have lost 2 straight games decided by 7 points or fewer against the Bills and the Jets and find themselves needing help to get into the playoffs. 

The Steelers and the Titans are both 8-7 with Tennessee holding the better strength-of-victory tiebreaker. This means the Titans simply have to beat the playoff-bound Texans in Houston in order to make the playoffs. 

The Steelers would need a Titans loss and a win of their own over the Ravens to sneak into the playoffs. 

Both Pittsburgh and Tennessee have to get through playoff teams for a chance to make it themselves, but the Steelers may surprisingly have an easier game. 

The Baltimore Ravens have already locked up home field advantage throughout the playoffs and will be resting the majority of their key starters, including Lamar Jackson of course. This means it will be the B-team Ravens led by Robert Griffin III hoping to spoil rival Pittsburgh’s chance of a wild card berth.

The Tennessee Titans have to travel to Houston to take on the AFC South rival Texans. Houston has already won the division and will be a 3 or 4 seed in the AFC playoffs. The Texans would need a Chiefs loss to the Chargers, along with a win themselves to clinch the 3 seed in the AFC. 

It is important to note that the Chiefs play at 1PM, while the Titans/Texans game kicks off at 4:25PM. If the Chiefs beat the Chargers in the early game, the Texans will be locked into the 4 seed in the AFC. If this likely scenario happens Bill O’Brien would be smart to bench or give limited snaps to the majority of his starters in order to avoid injury in a then-irrelevant game. It is also worth noting that if the Chiefs win and Texans lose to the Titans, they will be matched up in wild card weekend once again. It would not be smart for O’Brien to show Tennessee his gameplan for the playoffs in this game.

There is one shocking scenario which the Oakland Raiders sneak into the playoffs. 

Oakland would need the Steelers and Titans to lose, Colts to win (@ Jaguars), a win themselves (@ Broncos), and one of these teams to win or tie (Patriots, Chargers, Lions, Bears). 

If this scenario happened, Oakland would hold the strength-of-victory tiebreaker over the Titans and Steelers and would be sitting pretty as the 6 seed in the AFC at 8-8. 

Given the following scenarios, here’s what we know about the AFC Playoff Picture:

1. Baltimore Ravens (13-2) 

- Locked into #1 AFC seed, control home-field advantage throughout playoffs

- Game: Home vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) 

2. New England Patriots (12-3)

- Need a win to secure #2 AFC seed and 1st round bye

- Game: Home vs. Dolphins (+16)

3. Kansas City Chiefs (11-4)

- Need a win and Patriots loss to secure #2 seed, can fall to #4 seed if Patriots/Texans both win

- Game: Home vs. Chargers (+9)

4. Houston Texans (10-5)

- Need a win and Chiefs loss to secure #3 seed, all other scenarios they are #4 seed

- Game: Home vs. Titans (-3.5)

5. Buffalo Bills (10-5)

- Locked into #5 seed, will play #4 seed on Wild Card Weekend

- Game: Home vs. Jets (+2)

6. Tennessee Titans (8-7)

- Need a win to secure the final AFC playoff spot 

- Game: Away vs. Texans (+3.5)

The most important AFC games to watch during the 1PM slate of games are the Patriots and the Chiefs. Both teams will be playing with their usual starters in hopes of securing a first-round-bye in the playoffs. 

Dolphins @ Patriots (-16) – I like the Patriots to get the job done and secure a first-round bye once again this year, but the point spread is too high against a Dolphins team who can move the ball offensively. It would not be a surprise in the slightest to see Belichick pull starters in the 4th quarter if they have a comfortable lead, living the backdoor cover in play. Patriots win, Dolphins cover the 16. 

Chargers @ Chiefs (-9) – The Chiefs will be scoreboard watching the Patriots game and hoping the Dolphins can pull off an upset win. Kansas City will try to win their game for a chance of a bye but have to assume they will be playing during wild card weekend. For this reason, be cautious of Andy Reid pulling his starters if the Patriots are close to securing the victory over the Dolphins. I would not bet this game, but I like the Chiefs to win.

Steelers @ Ravens (+2) – It feels really strange to see the Ravens as an underdog this season, but the line is for good reason. We can assume the Ravens will be resting their starters and taking a backseat approach to this game. At the same time, the classic Baltimore-Pittsburgh rivalry will be present, and we can expect to see a close, well-fought game from both teams. It would not surprise me if the Steelers lose, but they will be coming in extra motivated to prove a point and make the playoffs. Look for the Steelers defense to make game-changing plays defensively against RGIII. Steelers win and cover the -2 on the road. 

Titans @ Texans (+3.5) – Another home dog playoff team playing a division rival with a chance to play spoiler. Since this game is at 4:25PM, the Texans will likely already know what seed they are locked into (4 if Chiefs win). Regardless of the seed they clinch, I think Bill O’Brien will play cautiously and rest his starters for most of the game. It would be smart for O’Brien to keep his game plan and bag of tricks up his sleeve until the playoffs. I like the Titans to win and secure the final AFC wild card spot. I would not take -3.5, but anything -3 or lower. 

Raiders @ Broncos (-3.5) – The Raiders could still have a chance of making the playoffs coming into this 4:25PM game. If the Colts beat the Jaguars, and one of these teams (Patriots, Lions, Bears, Chargers) win during the 1PM slate, the Raiders would need a win and losses from both the Titans and Steelers to get the 6th AFC seed. It is not improbable, but unlikely. I will not bet on this game but will be rooting for the Raiders to somehow sneak into the playoffs. 

This NFL week 17 slate will provide great action all Sunday and we should expect to see some upsets and close games. 

For some of us this will be the last Sunday of watching our favorite teams compete until next season (myself included, thank you Jets). But regardless of who you root for, be happy that the NFL Playoffs are almost here. 

Thank you for reading and be sure to check out my NFC Week 17 Predictions which will be posted later tonight!