NFL PLAYOFFS - WILD CARD PREDICTIONS

-Blake Deresienski

Week 17 of the NFL certainly lived up to the hype with some amazing games. My AFC predictions mostly came true with the Titans securing the final playoff seed. I was dead wrong about the Steelers, who ended their season appropriately by losing out. I was a big fan of the Dolphins +16 line against the Patriots but could not have guessed them to win straight up. That game could be considered one of the biggest “chokes” in recent Patriots history and cost them a first-round bye. However, we cannot count out the Patriots in the playoffs under any circumstance. Coming from a Jets fan, I’ve seen this narrative one too many times. You cannot count out Belichick and Brady. The playoffs are finally here and it’s time to get excited about these awesome matchups!

The first game of wild card weekend should be a real treat to watch. Josh Allen will make his playoff debut against Deshaun Watson in Houston.

Home field…disadvantage? Despite the Texans being home for this playoff matchup, the Bills still feel very confident they can travel and win. Buffalo is 6-2 on the road this year, including wins over the Titans and Cowboys. Houston is 5-3 at home this year, including losses to the Panthers and Broncos. 

The one big mismatch in this matchup involves the Houston offense, as shown by DVOA. The Bills are ranked 6th in defensive DVOA, while the Texans are ranked 17th in offensive DVOA. The Bills are also ranked 22nd in offensive DVOA while the Texans are 26thin defensive DVOA. Buffalo has been using their defense to win games all year, and I do not see much different in this game. It is also important to note the Bills are 3rd in the NFL in red zone defense, which could limit Texans drives and force them to settle for field goals. Tre’Davious White matched up on DeAndre Hopkins could limit the targets he sees and force Watson to throw elsewhere. 

The most important factors for the Bills to limit are Houston’s wide receivers and Watson’s rushing ability. If they can shut these down and force the Texans to run the ball with Carlos Hyde, they will be in good shape. 

On the flip side, the Texans defense needs to focus on shutting down Devin Singletary and not allowing Josh Allen to scramble as well. We can assume the Bills want to play a run-heavy offense, control the game script, and win the game defensively. If this game is low scoring battle, the Bills would have an advantage with a much stronger defense. 

The Texans best chance of winning will be if they can take an early lead and establish a positive game script. This will force Josh Allen to throw the ball and allow their own offense to go run heavy, opening up play action passes and read option runs from Watson. Protecting Watson is key to winning this game. Watson has been sacked 44 times this year, and an average of 4.8 sacks per game in games Houston has lost. Buffalo has a great defensive line with the likes of Jordan Phillips, Ed Oliver, and Trent Murphy, who all had 5 or more sacks this season. If the Bills can get pressure to Watson, he’s in for a long game. Despite a below average Texans defense, the Bills will not be able to keep up if they find themselves trailing by a couple TDs. Look for Bill O’Brien to take early risks offensively to go ahead in the game in the first half. 

Under Bill O’Brien, the Texans are 1-2 in wild card weekend with their only win coming against the Connor Cook (3rd string QB) led Raiders. Houston has a different team this year and past stats are not too relevant, but it’s always important to take coaching into account in the playoffs. Although I am not overly confident in either side, I always like leaning with a stronger defensive team in a playoff game. This game is a toss up in my opinion and the research I’ve done favors the Bills, so I’ll roll with the stronger defense.  

LEAN: Buffalo Bills +3, Bills ML +125 

This is the game I was not looking forward to researching. The Patriots have not played on wild card weekend since the 2009-2010 season when they lost to the Ravens in Foxborough. Although it’s a small sample size, the Patriots are 3-3 with 0 AFC championships when they do not have a first-round bye in the playoffs. After seeing their chances of a bye ripped away from them after losing to the Dolphins at home last week, it may be time to panic. With all the media discussion counting out the Patriots they will once again carry the “underdog” mentality throughout the playoffs, only giving Belichick and Brady that much more doubt to fuel them. I’ve heard this story one too many times before, and I will not let recency bias influence my playoff predictions.

Despite the talk of Brady and the Patriots offense having a bad year, they are still ranked 11th in offensive DVOA. The Patriots’ strength has come from their defense, which is ranked 1st in the NFL in defensive DVOA. The Titans offense has picked up at an extreme pace towards the back half of the season and finished 6th in offensive DVOA. This gives them an edge offensively over the Patriots, but the bigger mismatch is the defense. Titans are right around league average ranking 16th in defensive DVOA, 15 spots lower than the Patriots at the top.

Just like all season the Patriots will have to rely on their defense to win this game, but I do not think their offense will have too many struggles either. Tennessee ranks 24th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, the lowest ranked AFC playoff team. This fits Brady’s bread-and-butter well, short passes and screens to get the ball off quickly. Brady has been at his worst this year when he is pressured and does not throw the ball within 3 seconds. Because of this, look for the Titans to go blitz heavy, allowing Brady to throw the short drag and slant routes to avoid the pressure.

Weather

Another factor we have to take into account is the January New England weather. The forecast for Saturday predicts light rain early in the day, which will then turn into a heavier snow/rain mix with 10-15 MPH winds. Ironically enough, the storm that will pass through Foxborough is named Winter Storm Henry. As if the Patriots were not going to be preparing for Derrick Henry enough regardless, a game with bad conditions could likely limit the Titans to ground and pound with their star RB. If the Patriots shut down Henry and force Tannehill to make plays himself, they can find themselves in a good position to win. The Patriots would also likely go run heavy with Sony Michel and limit Brady’s deep passes, where he has struggled this year. If Belichick can keep Brady throwing short passes to James White and Julian Edelman for the majority of the game, they will be successful in any weather conditions. 

In order for the Titans to pull off the upset, they will have to apply serious pressure to Brady and force him to make mistakes. If the defense can get to Brady in the pocket and sack him or force turnovers, they can control the pace of play with Derrick Henry. The messy conditions could favor the Titans if Henry can handle a huge workload and take pressure off of Tannehill. If Mike Vrabel can dial up a perfect defensive scheme to shut down Sony Michel and short wide receiver routes, it will force Brady to throw the ball deep. Especially if the Patriots find themselves losing late in the 4th quarter and forced to throw deep balls, they will be in trouble. Patriots fans know this is less than ideal for them. 

Ryan Tannehill is 0-6 when playing in Foxborough and has never appeared in a playoff game in his career. Granted the 6 losses came when he was a Miami Dolphin, they still hold some weight. Belichick has had great success playing against in-experienced quarterbacks in the playoffs, and I see no different in this game. Tannehill has been an absolute stud since he was given the starting job over Marcus Mariota, but none of his wins have come against strong defensive teams. As I stated previously about the Bills game, I always like to side with the better defensive unit in the playoffs. The Patriots goal will clearly be to shut down Derrick Henry, and if they do that, I can see Tannehill making mistakes. 

Lean: New England Patriots -4, Patriots ML -220

Despite the big spread in this game, this matchup has the potential to be the most exciting of all wild card weekend. Football fans are blessed to see a rematch of the “Minneapolis Miracle,” the 2018 playoff game that ended with Stefon Diggs winning the game for the Vikings in shocking fashion. 

The Saints have had an amazing offense all year and are viewed by most as the strongest offensive team in the NFC. They are ranked 4thin the NFL in offensive DVOA, and 11th in defensive DVOA. Compare that to the Kirk Cousins led Vikings, who with the help of Dalvin Cook finished 10th in offensive DVOA. There is still plenty of Kirk Cousins slander going around, but he has certainly had a great season. The Saints have a slight-to-moderate edge offensively, but the Vikings are the better defensive team. Minnesota ranks 7th in defensive DVOA, 4 spots higher than the Saints at 11th. Neither of these statistics show a clear edge for either team meaning they are fairly evenly matched, and we should be in for a good game. 

The Vikings ended their season poorly with an embarrassing primetime loss against the rival Packers, followed by a week 17 loss to the Bears while resting their starters. Because of this, I feel the recency bias is playing a huge factor in the Saints being favored by 7.5. The Saints ended their season with a 3-game win streak, easily handling the Colts, Titans, and Panthers. Out of all of the Saints home games they only had 2 against playoff teams. In week 1 they beat the Texans 30-28 (crazy game, if you remember), and in week 14 they lost to the 49ers 48-46 (another crazy game). This is not at all a knock on how great the Saints have been this season. They have crushed teams offensively and made it impossible to keep up with them, but keep in mind their opponents in those games. They will be motivated to come out strong offensively against the Vikings, just as motivated as the Vikings will be to shut them down. I am not buying into the narrative of a “revenge game” for the Saints after the Minneapolis Miracle. As soon as the opening kickoff is in the air, both teams will be motivated to crush the other just as much. 

A big problem for the Vikings in this game comes from defensive injuries. Cornerback Mackensie Alexander will not play with a neck injury, alongside cornerback Mike Hughes who was placed on injured reserve. Considering the Vikings have to guard record-breaker Michael Thomas, they need all the secondary help they can get. The good news is Xavier Rhodes is expected to play, and they signed Marcus Sherels. Both of these cornerbacks will have a hard task in front of them to shut down the Saints wide receivers. Despite these injuries, Mike Zimmer is still confident his team can get the job done. “We’ll find a way,” he said Friday when asked how to shut down the Saints offense. Zimmer is an extremely talented head coach, but the slew of injuries could end up being too much against a team like the Saints.

Aside from shutting down the Saints defensively, the most important factor for the Vikings is having Dalvin Cook back on the field. Cook has said he’s at full strength and has recovered from his shoulder injury that he suffered in week 15 against the Chargers. This is a big deal because Cook averaged 17.9 rushes for 81.1 yards per game. It is clear he is the focal point of their offense, who like to go rush heavy and take pressure off Kirk Cousins. With Cook in the lineup the Vikings were 10-4, with 2 of those losses coming in 1 possession games to the Chiefs and Seahawks. 

The Saints are 4th in the NFL in opponent rushing yards, allowing an average of 91.3 yards per game. However, they are 20thin opponent passing yards giving up an average of 241.8 yards per game. The one thing that is important to remember about these statistics is how good the Saints offense has been. In most games, teams find themselves trailing to New Orleans and are forced to throw the ball to keep up. Cook is one of the few running backs talented enough to have rushing success on any defense. If the Vikings can be effective running the ball with Cook, this will open up their offense to be successful on play action and pass plays. Their best chance of winning is if they can grab an early lead, pound the ball with Cook, and limit the Saints offense to punts and field goals. The Saints best chance of winning is simple. Do what they’ve been doing all year, keep up their electric offense, and force Kirk Cousins to make mistakes. It is difficult for me to see the Vikings winning with their injuries on defense, but I think they will make it a close, interesting game.

Lean: Minnesota Vikings +7.5, New Orleans Saints ML -400

The Eagles snuck into the playoffs with a 4-game win streak to end the season and are peaking at the perfect time. We saw this last year in the playoffs when the Eagles upset the Bears in wild card weekend, thanks to blocking Cody Parkey’s game winning field goal attempt. The Eagles have already matched up with the Seahawks once this year in Philadelphia, with the Seahawks winning 17-9 in a low scoring affair. Are the Eagles peaking at the right time to steal another wild card weekend win, or will the Seahawks beat them twice this year in Philadelphia?

The Seahawks have been a dominant team all year who were an inch away (literally, an inch) to defeating the 49ers last week and securing a first-round bye. Surprisingly, the Seahawks have had more success on the road than at home this year, going 7-1 on the road compared to 4-4 at home. Losing both of their running backs Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny certainly hurts their rushing game, but they hope newly signed RB Marshawn Lynch can be back at full “beast mode” during the playoffs. The Seahawks rank 5th in offensive DVOA, and 18th in defensive DVOA. If you haven’t already noticed, this is a far cry from the “legion of boom” Seahawks who crushed teams defensively on their way to playoff success. This team is offensive orientated, winning games by outscoring opponents. The Eagles rank 14th in offensive DVOA and 12th in defensive DVOA, giving them the defensive edge. Unsurprisingly the biggest mismatch is the Seahawks offense compared to the Eagles offense. The Eagles have had a ton of injuries on the offensive side all season, losing the majority of their starting wide receivers. Despite this they’ve still been able to find success thanks in part to rookie RB Miles Sanders, who got more touches late in the season and produced greatly. These two teams seem to be going in opposite directions with the Seahawks losing their last 3 out of 4 games of the regular season, and the Eagles winning their final 4 games. This could be a reason for the small 1.5 line. 

Miles Sanders, who was questionable for the Eagles, has stated he’s good to go for the game on Sunday. This is important for the Eagles banged up offense as the Seahawks have allowed an average of 117.7 rushing yards per game, good for 22nd in the league. Eagles tackle Lane Johnson has missed time since an injury in week 14 and is officially listed as questionable for Sunday, along with tight end Zach Ertz. These are both important injuries to keep an eye on, having Johnson play would be a huge help for the Eagles offensive line. Ertz has been Carson Wentz’ favorite pass catcher all season. In 15 games, he was targeted 135 times and had 88 receptions. The closest behind him in targets and receptions is fellow TE Dallas Goedert with 87 and 58 respectively. At the very least if Ertz is out, Wentz will feel comfortable throwing to Goedert. 

Out of all of the games on wild card weekend this is for sure the one I am least confident in. I would not bet on this game because I can really see it going either way. That being said, something I do like to take into account in these first-round playoff matchups is how the teams are trending. Seahawks lost 3 out of their last 4 games, clearly trending down. Eagles have won their last 4 games, have home field advantage, and are trending up. When these teams matched up earlier this season the Eagles defense held the Seahawks to respectable 17 points, but the offense only scored 3 field goals. I cannot see that happening again in this game. I think Doug Pederson will once again coach a great game in the playoffs and lead the Eagles to the divisional round. 

Lean: Philadelphia Eagles +1.5, Eagles ML +105

We are in for a treat this weekend with 4 awesome NFL games. There is no better time than the NFL playoffs. Thank you for reading, and be sure to follow our twitter page to be alerted about new content all throughout 2020. 

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